Football Efficiency

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Regular sports betting
Betting on football matches. We make about $1.34 for every $1 betted. We currently only bet on the Dutch Eredivisie and Belgium Jupiler Pro League. We expect you to bet $1000 per match. On average we bet on 1 in 3 matches. So that means that we bet on about 100 matches for a specific competition. So currently in total on 200 matches for the two leagues that we follow. If you bet $1000 you earn on average $340 per match. Or $68.000 per season. We think that it is smart to help is out with 50% of that or $2.500 per month.

When you become our patron we add one more league. So that means the more patrons, the more we all make.

We use our own Bayesian model where we use the actual lineup to predict the outcome of matches. When you become our patron, you get all our betting information at soon as the lineup is known.

You also get access to the hundreds of predictions that we made in the past year. As a bonus you also get access to our portfolio of players on Football Index.

Here is how we did the last two seasons:

Here is a chart that shows how many bad breaks we had. This chart shows you the level of risk that you run:

As you can see we had a bad first half of the 2018/2019 season. So please keep in mind that there can be bad breaks that you might lose up to 20 times your bet size. For that reason we prefer patrons who have at least a $40.000 budget to play with.

Football Index: sports betting on individual players


In early 2019, Football Index (FI) broke through into the mainstream. FI is a new way of sports betting. Rather than bet on the outcome of a match, you bet on whether individual players will do well in the future. The underlying future performance is derived by both performance stats (goals, assists, man of the match, clean sheets, etc.) and market news, with dividends being paid out for ‘good performance’ in both. Furthermore, like a normal stock market, the buying and selling of shares by all participants drives the price of players. In this way, FI simulates a stock market for football players, with prices being set by people buying or selling shares in a football player.

Subjective Bayesian Consultancy B.V. is a group of data, video and live scouts that operates in the real football world; we have worked as scouting consultants with a number of clubs, working on dozens of projects with numerous clubs in Europe that have resulted in numerous auditable outcomes (either pursuit or sale of players). Given our scouting platform, we have a much greater insight in which players are likely to perform well, move to better clubs and ultimately perform well on FI. At present, we are in a buy and hold period.

Many people are doing well on FI as FI can be compared to an Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) where money is flowing in. FI will do well until either someone comes up with a better system for sports betting or prices go parabolic and people start to cash out. As we keep daily tabs on both FI and all competitors we are ideally positioned to get you in the market, make a very healthy profit for you and get you out in time.

Because of our scouting expertise we outperform almost all other consultants. We are currently averaging an 8% net profit per month on FI. This document describes how you can profit from our knowledge as well.

How does it work?

FI’s interface and the way our consultancy works is very simple for you, involving very little work. The only thing you need to do is open an account with FI and sign up on our Patreon page:

You then immediately get a list of the players we recommend (and own) so that you can buy the portfolio. As you can only buy shares in lots of a maximum of 300 shares, we have built our portfolio in such a way that we diversify rather than have more than 300 shares for a single player. Due to the spread between the buy and sell prices, you’ll first get a very small loss of 1%-5%. This ‘loss’ is recuperated very fast, usually within 1-3 weeks.

As soon as we want to buy a new player or sell a player in our portfolio, we post the information on our Patreon page. You will then receive an immediate email (or smartphone message if you have downloaded the app). Normally this would happen once every two weeks on average given our current buy and hold strategy. In principle, the faster you react the better, but in practice we have experienced that even lagging a few days makes very little difference.

As most of the players we buy are relatively unknown talents and relatively young (most are under 23), we usually buy these players for a relatively low amount. That means that there is very little room for the price to drop. So far, we have bought 40 players out of the 3000 available. Of those 40, only 5 players have dropped in price below the spread. If you bought 300 shares of these five players, your loss would be £105 on a total investment of £1,110. Our approach is built to offer downside protection.

Besides the five players where we are currently making a small loss, there are eight players that have not moved significantly, with the other 27 players making £1,274 between them. Therefore, for a total investment of £5,877 on the current portfolio of 40 players (a 300 shareholding of each player) would return £1,169 in profit (19.9%).

Who can join us?

First of all, FI is only available to people with a credit card registered on an address in the UK, Canada or Ireland, which is also where you must be to make buy and sell shares. FI is very strict in enforcing these restrictions as they are tied to their license.

We want to work with people who (a) understand that even though FI currently is a currently a great opportunity to make money it is still sports betting and consequently comes with risks and (b) have the ability of funding their account with at least £20,000 – this is a figure already reached by multiple FI users.

Our monthly fee is based on the idea that we split all profits: you provide the funds, we provide the data. As to the profits, we estimate that you make at least 5% per month, in which case we would charge you 2.5% of your capital. If we make less in a month, then we lower the amount for the next month or even give you the next month for free. This would continue until we are back at a fair split of the profits.

Given that the first month’s return is usually a bit lower, it will be offered for free, bearing a one-time £100 non-refundable set up fee.

We work with an honor system where people inform us honestly when their portfolio is much bigger. We then charge a higher fee. It is not only honorably, but also smart to inform us, as we reinvest our income into more and more data scouting, improving everyone’s portfolio. If your capital is significantly more than 20.000 pound you want to spread your risk more. Therefore we need to find more players with a low risk profile for you. Another reason to inform us honorably when your capital is much higher than 20.000 pound.

When you sign up through Patreon, make sure you choose the $500 patronage for Football Index. As a bonus you also get all our regular sports betting tips. But please be advised that in our view, regular sports betting is a lot riskier than FI currently.
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By becoming a patron, you'll instantly unlock access to 1,167 exclusive posts
By becoming a patron, you'll instantly unlock access to 1,167 exclusive posts

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