Take it away Matt:
Orioles at Red Sox
Total has dropped from 9.5 to 8.5
Dylan Bundy has been one of the most difficult pitchers to figure out this season, as his 5.37 ERA and 3.96 SIERA are very far from a match. Bundy tends to be consistently undervalued by the betting public, but tonight’s line movement might actually have almost nothing to do with him (or his opposition, Nathan Eovaldi). The drop to this total looks to have everything to do with the weather, as temperatures are expected to be in the 50s, and the wind is expected to be blowing in at about 10 mph. Fenway is going to be playing like much more of a pitchers park tonight, and run suppression should be expected as a result.
MARINERS (-140) vs A’s
Mariners have moved from -125 to -130 with only 33% of moneyline bets
The public is backing the trendy underdog A’s here, but this matchup clearly favors James Paxton and the Mariners, as Paxton is a far superior pitcher to Daniel Mengden. It’s hard to gauge what the public sees in this one, except that the A’s are a playoff team and the Mariners are not. In any case, it’s extremely notable to see the line moving in Seattle’s direction despite such a heavy public bias on the other side.
BLUE JAYS (+170) vs Astros
Blue Jays are receiving just 20% of moneyline bets
Dallas Keuchel’s downward trajectory has continued this season, as his strikeout rate has fallen to just 6.7 K/9 and his SIERA has climbed to 4.13. Keuchel has also been significantly worse against righties this season, and Toronto actually has quite a few decent ones in their lineup. The Astros are still the better team and Keuchel is still clearly better than Marco Estrada, but this line is likely inflated by the standings, as well as Keuchel’s name recognition.