Guest Content: Matt Meiselman on Wednesday Bets
Three of the four (or five, if you count the Padres as two bets) sharp money moves resulted in winners last night, with the San Diego bullpen keeping us from a perfect sweep. For today, a similar group of teams are looking undervalued once again.

LINE MOVERS

MARINERS (-110) vs A’s

Mariners have moved from +101 to -110 with only 30% of moneyline bets

The Mariners came through last night with a 9th inning comeback against Blake Treinen before ultimately winning in the 11th. Today they’re seeing sharp money for the 3rd day in a row, as the “still have something to play for” A’s are getting far too much public support. Edwin Jackson’s 3.18 ERA this season is also a complete mirage, but the public seems to be buying it to some degree. Jackson has a 4.56 FIP, 4.68 xFIP, and 4.81 SIERA, all of which represent his best season since 2015. The ERA will certainly regress to the mean, and the peripherals may even regress a little as well, and what this adds up to is a bad starting pitcher that the public views as a good one. Felix Hernandez isn’t anything special at this point in his career either, but he’s probably better than Jackson and he gets the benefit of home field advantage.

TIGERS (+125) at Twins

Tigers have moved from +135 to +130 with about ⅓ of moneyline bets

Matt Boyd is coming off of his worst game of the season, getting shelled at home against the lowly Royals, but there’s still a lot to like here from the Tigers side. It’s actually a very similar situation to last night’s game, where we have pretty comparable pitchers and pretty comparable offenses, and the line is simply inflated for the home team. 

PADRES (+105) at Giants

Padres have moved from +135 to +105 with about half of moneyline bets

Total has risen from 7 to 8

The Padres are rolling out Luis Perdomo today but he’s expected to go just a few innings and give way to the rest of the Padres bullpen. The Padres actually have gotten decent production from their pen this year (6th best bullpen ERA, 3rd best SIERA) but any bullpen game is probably better than Giants starter Casey Kelly. If the Giants go with a bullpen game it’s still advantage-Padres, so it makes sense that this line dropped as much as it has. What doesn’t make sense is why Vegas made the Giants such big favorites in the first place.

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