The Commons Numbers on Brexit
Some rough notes on how the Commons numbers might line up for any EU Withdrawal Agreement that Theresa May is able to put before Parliament in the next few months. (Updated 17 Oct/9 Nov/14 Nov/15 Nov)

For May's deal

325 Conservatives minus rebels - see below.

Against May's deal

257 Labour minus rebels - see below.

35 SNP

12 Lib Dems

4 Plaid

1 Green

Most of the smaller parties will probably vote solidly against the Government. Although with all parties, the numbers on paper will be affected by the vagaries of illness etc. The Vince Cable incident on the customs union vote underlines that the most unlikely votes can go astray.

In Play/Uncertain

10 DUP - Very likely to vote against as May unlikely to get a deal that doesn't involve an Irish backstop

8 Independents including:

Frank Field   - FT - 10 October 2018 notes that he has often voted with the Government on Brexit.  

Potential Tory Rebels

Eurosceptics

Steve Baker - FT, 2 September 2018.

David Davis - Independent, 2 September 2018.

Jacob Rees-Mogg. Guardian, 11 September 2018.

Johnny Mercer - ConHome, 11 September 2018.

Mark Francois - BBC, 25 September 2018.

Boris Johnson - BBC, 28 September 2018.

Owen Paterson - Shropshire Star, 2 October 2018.

Bernard Jenkin - The Sun, 7 October 2018.

Iain Duncan Smith - StandUp4Brexit.

Priti Patel  - StandUp4Brexit

John Whittingdale  - StandUp4Brexit

Steven Baker - StandUp4Brexit

Jacob Rees-Mogg  - StandUp4Brexit

Bernard Jenkin  - StandUp4Brexit

Mike Penning  - StandUp4Brexit

Andrea Jenkyns  - StandUp4Brexit

John Redwood  - StandUp4Brexit

Ben Bradley  - StandUp4Brexit

Marcus Fysh  - StandUp4Brexit

Maria Caulfield  - StandUp4Brexit

Simon Clarke  - StandUp4Brexit

Ross Thomson  - StandUp4Brexit. Confirmed he will vote against deal on 14 Nov. Scotsman 

Henry Smith  - StandUp4Brexit

Nadine Dorries  - StandUp4Brexit

Chris Green  - StandUp4Brexit

Andrew Bridgen  - StandUp4Brexit

Bill Cash  - StandUp4Brexit

Sheryll Murray  - StandUp4Brexit

Andrew Rosindell  - StandUp4Brexit

Lee Rowley  - StandUp4Brexit

Peter Bone  - StandUp4Brexit

Charlie Elphicke  - StandUp4Brexit

Anne-Marie Morris  - StandUp4Brexit

James Duddridge  - StandUp4Brexit

Andrew Lewer  - StandUp4Brexit

Nigel Mills  - StandUp4Brexit

Martin Vickers  - StandUp4Brexit

Richard Bacon  - StandUp4Brexit

Craig Mackinlay  - StandUp4Brexit

Philip Davies  - StandUp4Brexit.

Suella Braverman - New Statesman, 15 Nov.

Conor Burns  - New Statesman, 15 Nov. 

Robert Courts  - New Statesman, 15 Nov. 

Ranil Jayawardena  - New Statesman, 15 Nov. 

Scott Mann - New Statesman, 15 Nov.  

Esther McVey -  - New Statesman, 15 Nov.  

Dominic Raab -  New Statesman, 15 Nov.  

Anne-Marie Trevelyan  - New Statesman, 15 Nov.  

Shailesh Vara  - New Statesman, 15 Nov.  

Rehman Chishti - Twitter, 15 Nov.

Potential Tory rebels - Pro-Europeans

The Guardian reported in October that up to 30 pro-European Tories could vote against May's deal, although the FT's Jim Pickard suggests that Downing Street is not expecting more than one or two such rebels. More recently, the Guardian reported on 14 November, that there could be a core of 7, still too high for the Government considering wider opposition.

Ken Clarke - Guardian, 10 Oct 18.

Anna Soubry  - Guardian, 10 Oct 18. Said to be wavering as of 14 Nov, are Heidi Allen and Antoinette Sandbach.  Guardian, 14 Nov 18. 

 Jo Johnson - resigned from Government to oppose Withdrawal Agreement 9 Nov. Medium.  

Justine Greening - called on Tory MPs to reject the deal - 10 Nov. Guardian

Dominic Grieve -  Guardian, 14 Nov 18.

Sarah Wollaston -  Guardian, 14 Nov 18. 

Guto Bebb - Guardian, 14 Nov 18. 

Philip Lee - Guardian, 14 Nov 18. 

Possible Labour Rebels

Note the names below are on a more speculative basis than the Tories, many of whom have gone on record against May's deal. (Update 15 November, statements by Hoey and Stringer suggest prospect of Labour rebellion melting away as the Tory rebellion grows).

Caroline Flint - FT - 10 October 2018.

Gareth Snell - FT - 10 October 2018. 

Lisa Nandy - FT - 10 October 2018. 

Kate Hoey - FT - 10 October 2018. personally, I would have thought Hoey was unlikely to support an Irish backstop deal strong enough to spook the DUP. (Update 15 November - Hoey has confirmed on Twitter she opposes May's deal.

Ronnie Campbell - FT - 10 October 2018.  

Rosie Cooper - FT - 10 October 2018.  

Laura Smith - FT - 10 October 2018.  

Jim Fitzpatrick - FT - 10 October 2018.  

John Spellar - FT - 10 October 2018.  

Graham Stringer  - FT - 10 October 2018.  On 15 November Stringer told Sky News he will not vote with the Government.

Gloria de Piero - New Statesman - 17 October.

Kevin Barron -  New Statesman - 17 October. 

See the Financial Times and New Statesman for competing perspectives on the likelihood of Labour rebellions.