For May's deal
325 Conservatives minus rebels - see below.
Against May's deal
257 Labour minus rebels - see below.
12 Lib Dems
Most of the smaller parties will probably vote solidly against the Government. Although with all parties, the numbers on paper will be affected by the vagaries of illness etc. The Vince Cable incident on the customs union vote underlines that the most unlikely votes can go astray.
10 DUP - Very likely to vote against as May unlikely to get a deal that doesn't involve an Irish backstop
8 Independents including:
Frank Field - FT - 10 October 2018 notes that he has often voted with the Government on Brexit.
Potential Tory Rebels
Steve Baker - FT, 2 September 2018.
David Davis - Independent, 2 September 2018.
Jacob Rees-Mogg. Guardian, 11 September 2018.
Johnny Mercer - ConHome, 11 September 2018.
Mark Francois - BBC, 25 September 2018.
Boris Johnson - BBC, 28 September 2018.
Owen Paterson - Shropshire Star, 2 October 2018.
Bernard Jenkin - The Sun, 7 October 2018.
Iain Duncan Smith - StandUp4Brexit.
Priti Patel - StandUp4Brexit.
John Whittingdale - StandUp4Brexit.
Steven Baker - StandUp4Brexit.
Jacob Rees-Mogg - StandUp4Brexit.
Bernard Jenkin - StandUp4Brexit.
Mike Penning - StandUp4Brexit.
Andrea Jenkyns - StandUp4Brexit.
John Redwood - StandUp4Brexit.
Ben Bradley - StandUp4Brexit.
Marcus Fysh - StandUp4Brexit.
Maria Caulfield - StandUp4Brexit.
Simon Clarke - StandUp4Brexit.
Henry Smith - StandUp4Brexit.
Nadine Dorries - StandUp4Brexit.
Chris Green - StandUp4Brexit.
Andrew Bridgen - StandUp4Brexit.
Bill Cash - StandUp4Brexit.
Sheryll Murray - StandUp4Brexit.
Andrew Rosindell - StandUp4Brexit.
Lee Rowley - StandUp4Brexit.
Peter Bone - StandUp4Brexit.
Charlie Elphicke - StandUp4Brexit.
Anne-Marie Morris - StandUp4Brexit.
James Duddridge - StandUp4Brexit.
Andrew Lewer - StandUp4Brexit.
Nigel Mills - StandUp4Brexit.
Martin Vickers - StandUp4Brexit.
Richard Bacon - StandUp4Brexit.
Craig Mackinlay - StandUp4Brexit.
Philip Davies - StandUp4Brexit.
Suella Braverman - New Statesman, 15 Nov.
Conor Burns - New Statesman, 15 Nov.
Robert Courts - New Statesman, 15 Nov.
Ranil Jayawardena - New Statesman, 15 Nov.
Scott Mann - New Statesman, 15 Nov.
Esther McVey - - New Statesman, 15 Nov.
Dominic Raab - New Statesman, 15 Nov.
Anne-Marie Trevelyan - New Statesman, 15 Nov.
Shailesh Vara - New Statesman, 15 Nov.
Rehman Chishti - Twitter, 15 Nov.
Potential Tory rebels - Pro-Europeans
The Guardian reported in October that up to 30 pro-European Tories could vote against May's deal, although the FT's Jim Pickard suggests that Downing Street is not expecting more than one or two such rebels. More recently, the Guardian reported on 14 November, that there could be a core of 7, still too high for the Government considering wider opposition.
Ken Clarke - Guardian, 10 Oct 18.
Jo Johnson - resigned from Government to oppose Withdrawal Agreement 9 Nov. Medium.
Justine Greening - called on Tory MPs to reject the deal - 10 Nov. Guardian
Dominic Grieve - Guardian, 14 Nov 18.
Sarah Wollaston - Guardian, 14 Nov 18.
Guto Bebb - Guardian, 14 Nov 18.
Philip Lee - Guardian, 14 Nov 18.
Possible Labour Rebels
Note the names below are on a more speculative basis than the Tories, many of whom have gone on record against May's deal. (Update 15 November, statements by Hoey and Stringer suggest prospect of Labour rebellion melting away as the Tory rebellion grows).
Caroline Flint - FT - 10 October 2018.
Gareth Snell - FT - 10 October 2018.
Lisa Nandy - FT - 10 October 2018.
Kate Hoey - FT - 10 October 2018. personally, I would have thought Hoey was unlikely to support an Irish backstop deal strong enough to spook the DUP. (Update 15 November - Hoey has confirmed on Twitter she opposes May's deal.
Ronnie Campbell - FT - 10 October 2018.
Rosie Cooper - FT - 10 October 2018.
Laura Smith - FT - 10 October 2018.
Jim Fitzpatrick - FT - 10 October 2018.
John Spellar - FT - 10 October 2018.
Gloria de Piero - New Statesman - 17 October.
Kevin Barron - New Statesman - 17 October.