Weather Discussion - Wed, Oct 9, 3:15 PM CDT:
This continues to be a fairly complicated forecast for the NASCAR weekend at Talladega. A strong cold front is expected to move across the eastern 2/3 of the US during the latter part of the week and into the weekend.
For Saturday, the forecast models are beginning to come more into alignment about an earlier cold frontal passage on Saturday during the morning hours. However, a slight timing difference remains in the forecast. In either scenario, this pattern will bring a chance of AM showers, breezy northwesterly winds, along with cooler temperatures.
For Sunday, the situation has become more complicated over the past 24 hours. While a ridge of high pressure is expected to extend across most of Alabama and the cold front is expected to stall well south of the track, an upper-level disturbance is forecast to swing across the state.
Similar to what was noted in yesterday's discussion, there is a large discrepancy in the forecast models, as seen in the attached graphics. The maps show the forecasted 12-hour rainfall totals from 7 AM to 7 PM CDT. The European model shows the higher totals, which are occurring because it is forecasting high amounts of moisture through the atmosphere, coupled with the upper-level trough. Additionally, the European ensemble shows that there is a 40-50% chance of measurable rainfall occurring. However, this does seem unlikely given the recent cold front passage with dry air moving in behind it.
In the other graphic, the American (GFS) model shows a lower chance of showers (10-20%) with drier air through the lower extent of the atmosphere. Therefore, I added a chance of showers to the Sunday forecast for the 1000Bulbs.com 500.
The forecast is now available at RaceWeather.net but will you being a patron, you get additional insight into what is driving the forecast.
Thank you for your continued patience and support.