Current World Conditions (Simulated)

Simulated current world conditions are as follows, based on the Timelines model.

For reference, here is a general species lifecycle diagram showing resources used for needs, habitat (remaining ecological resources), and waste (resources unavailable for consumption for needs):

Here is the current global distribution for humans, which includes the maximum needs supportable by the habitat, where the area of each circle is the cumulative amount of resources:

The distribution of cumulative resources over phase is shown below.

Based on the amount of habitable area on the Earth, the ratio of needs to habitat, Sratio, can be converted to people per unit area (see Hab Density in the summary above). Today's distribution of global variables as a function of this measure is shown below.

For reference, the ratio of habitat to needs (equal to habitat per person, because people need 1 resource per person) varies with phase (categories of behavior dependent on amount of available habitat) as follows.

Alternate Future

A potential alternate future that increases the amount of habitat per person by reducing waste and keeping population constant between 2021 and 2030 is projected to look as follows at the end of its transition. Note that reduction of heat-trapping gas already in the atmosphere starts in 2025 (as a reduction of cumulative ecological resources) at a rate that limits the maximum temperature anomaly to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

The distribution of global variables in 2030 as a function of Habitat Density is shown below.

The ratio of habitat to needs (habitat/person) is shown over time for both simulations below.

For reference, the ratio of habitat to needs (equal to habitat per person, because people need 1 resource per person) varies with phase (categories of behavior dependent on amount of available habitat) as follows.

The global annual changes of variables during the transition are shown below.

Changes of variables over phase from 2021-2030 are shown below.

Note that the rates drop to -100% at the Decline phase (6). For detail by phase, see Changes(Phase) 2021-2030. 

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