- Cathy Wood ARK Funds CRASH!
- India Apocalypse Heralds Catastrophe for Pakistan and Bangladesh
- Covid-19 in Italy in August 2019!
- Stock Market Early Summer Correction Trend Forecast
- Stocks Expensive or Cheap Indicator (EC)
- AI Stock Buy % Rating Review
- 1. GOOGLE - $2398
- 2. AMAZON - $3312
- 3. MICROSOFT - $252.5
- 4. APPLE - $130
- 5. FACEBOOK - $320
- 6. NVIDIA - $592.5
- 7. AMD - $78.8
- 11. IBM - $145.5
- 12. INTEL - $57.7
- AI Stocks Buying Levels Update May 2021
- So what am I going to do
- GPU Mining FREE MONEY!
- CHIA Crypto Farming with Your Hard Drives Insanity!
The stock market is now entering my forecast window for a significant correction which should present an opportunity to accumulate into most the AI mega-trend stocks many of which have galloped ahead to new all time highs this year, trending in the opposite direction to the much higher risk stocks such as those that heavily populate the media blitzkrieging Cathy Wood's ARK funds i.e. their biggest holding Tesla is down 4.5% year to date whilst AI numero Uno Google is up 32%! Which this analysis seeks to resolve in high probability buying levels in advance of an expected correction during May.
Tesla's chart does not look good! The chart implies $400 is probable in the not too distant future which so happens to be what I had penciled in at where I would consider buying Tesla in my analysis of 28th of Feb (AI Tech Stocks Buying Ratings, Levels and Valuations March 2021 ). Though more recently I have penciled in buying in a range of $200 to $300.
So what does this mean?
It means the investing public is going to be subject to a lot mass misinformation from vested interests such as Cathy Wood who will be hell bent on not seeing the corner stone of ARK funds being decimated and along with it her funds performance. Gone will be the Tesla price targets of $2000, even $3000, to be replaced with loony toons targets of $5000 even $10000, to try to encourage investors to stay invested, so basically pumping Tesla stock! And probably similar for her funds other big large high risk holdings.
Where Tesla is concerned the FUNDMENTAL FACT IS TESLA IS VALUED AT ABOUT 4 TIMES GOOGLE! WHEN TESLA IS NOT EQUAL TO ONE GOOGLE! Tesla does weak AI, Google does strong AI. Tesla is like the Aldi version of AI to the Google's Waitrose AI, and that's why I CANNOT invest in TESLA, not when there's GOOGLE sat there trading at 1/4 the valuation of Tesla!.
Tesla is in a bubble, the stock valuations is crazy, it's as though everyone assumes Tesla will be the only automaker to produce self driving cars! that all of the major auto players are just sat on the sidelines waiting to die whilst Tesla takes over the world! Well taking a look at just one automaker, BMW reveals the extent of their strategic partnerships that ensures that Tesla will NOT be dominant in the auto sector, not with the likes of BMW, AUDI, Toyota, Nissan and the rest all fast playing catchup. Note don't take this as a recommendation to invest in BMW!
Tesla stock is heading lower, a quick analysis suggests the stock could easily trade to under $400 during 2021, that's more than a 60% drop off its $900 high, a Tesla stock BEAR MARKET that the likes of Cathy Wood are desperate to avoid materialising, though if she really is intelligent then whilst she has been busy pumping Tesla in the media she will have also been busy selling Tesla stock at the same time.
(Charts courtesy of stockcharts.com)
Tesla is a sign that the market needs to correct! Which will pull most stocks down with them, especially those that have had a spectacular bull run year to date. A stock market plunge during May will be good timing for my next analysis on high risk stocks that will be focused on the Life Sciences that I aim to complete within a weeks time/
Cathy Wood ARK Funds CRASH!
Whilst the Dow has been trading at NEW all time highs, supreme media high risk stocks pumper's ARK funds have entered into a severe bear market as ARK bubble finally bursts. Those invested in ARK funds are in for a more pain over the coming weeks and months as reality catches up with the fantasy valuations that the Cathy brigade had lifted the likes of Tesla to.
In fact in response to Patron queries I recall warning investors in ARK funds over 2 months ago in the comments section of AI Tech Stocks Buying Ratings, Levels and Valuations March 2021.
"Hi Nadeem, wonder if you know about Cathy Wood and her Ark Invest ETFs? What do you think about them?"
"I'm not a funds guy, I prefer to own the actual stock. Contrary to what most understand, funds are RISKIER than holding invidual stocks, they can implode, get paralysed, enter death spirals. Not saying it will happen to Ark, but if its investing in small and medium cap speculative tech stocks than its ultimate fate could be an investors nightmare. At least I know Google will come good whatever happens short-term."
So I would not be surprised if what I warned of comes to pass as over the decades I have seen it happen many times before, panicking investors seeking to exit funds results in forced selling in high risk stock holdings driving stock and fund values sharply lower thus resulting in more panic selling amongst investors, a death spiral to the point when funds suspend withdrawals.
In quick technical terms ARK has fallen to support so probably will bounce from here but that does not mean that the ARK bear market is over let alone to expect a resumption of the rally into the Feb highs..
India Apocalypse Heralds Catastrophe for Pakistan and Bangladesh
India's covid-19 double mutant B.1.617 apocalypse continues with the actual numbers of deaths and infections many times the official numbers of 400,000 infected and 3,500 deaths per day as we witness the collapse of India's healthcare system. that could see the number of total number of deaths exceed 2 million before the end of May, with the peak seeing as many as 100,000 deaths per day. Meanwhile indian politicians live in an alternative universe, making announcements that all indians over the age of 18 now being eligible for the vaccines, despite the fact that most of the vaccination centres have closed due to lack of vaccines which means only 10% of Indians (higher castes) have had 1 dose and 1.5% 2 doses. If those in charge of India had any sense of intelligence then they would be focused on vaccinating the most vulnerable i.e. the over 45's and not opening up vaccinations to all adults (higher castes)! Instead of which India's government is primarily focused on peddling misinformation in trying to hide the magnitude of the catastrophe underway which includes instructing twitter to delete tweets critical of their mismanagement of the pandemic.
Covid exposes the myth that is multi-racial India, where covid has once more brought forth of the dominance of the caste system into stark focus, lower cast lives don't matter, so as long as the higher castes have been getting vaccinations in private hospitals then the likes of Modi could not care less about a few million lower caste deaths, hindu fundamentalism in action. India is probably the most racist pseudo democracy on the planet where skin tone matters! The darker ones skin tone then the greater the racism experienced.
Which is why vaccines produced in India have vaccinated about the same number abroad then in India, with Indian politicians from Modi downwards demonstrating that they just could not care less about the lower caste poor.
Meanwhile whilst mainstream news media is focused on what is taking place in India, however neighbouring states such as Pakistan and Bangladesh with even weaker healthcare systems are in for a catastrophic May as the Indian strain becomes dominant, again the actual number of cases and deaths will be grossly under reported in both nations with even fewer rates of vaccinations than India. Therefore rather than sending vaccines to India because it is basically too late for them to have any effect now as what is going to happen is already baked in, then its much wiser to concentrate on vaccinating neighbouring countries which are likely some 3 to 4 weeks behind where India is today.
The current state of the pandemic in the West has the UK trundling along at a low of 32 cases per million with the US stagnating at 150 cases per million, whilst Europe remains high due to incompetence in the roll out of their vaccinations programmes, and thankfully all appear to finally turned the tide. Though all are awaiting the consequences of new emerging strain out of India that so far more infectious given that it has displaced the UK strain in India to become dominant due to having double the mutations of the other strains. Still so far for the UK and US it's steady as you go with the US moving ahead of the UK in terms of taking steps to come out of lockdown's even though the death rate looks a little higher than it should with about 40% of adults remaining to be vaccinated in the US. Whilst the UK is adopting a more cautious approach to coming out of lockdown with the next major relaxation in rules to come on the 17th of May, thus allowing more time for vaccinations to take effect.
Covid-19 in Italy in August 2019!
An open source peer reviewed study in Italy states that anti-bodies for covid-19 were detected in blood samples in Italy as early as September 2019!
Blood samples taken from 959 asymptomatic patients as part of a nationwide lung cancer screening program subsequently showed contained 111 (11.6%) antibodies to SARs Cov2 in the receptor binding domain which means they were definitely infected with Covid-19 over 4 months BEFORE Italy's first official cases of Covid-19, 2 chinese tourists on the 30th of January 2020 who had traveled form China to Rome. Whilst the first italian confirmed case of community spread of Covid-19 was on the 20th of Feb 2020 in Lombardy.
Out of 111 positive antibody results, 23 were in samples form September 2019, 27 in October 2019, 26 in November 2019, 11 in December 2019, 3 in January 2020 and 21 in Feb 2020.
The earliest sample for a positive test for antibodies was on the 3rd of September 2019, which means they would have been exposed to the virus at least during August 2019.
This map shows where the blood samples were taken and the number of covid-19 antibodies detected.
What this implies is that chinese travelers / migrant workers had been spreading the virus long before the story first started to break early January 2020 and thus it is highly likely the virus was endemic in China Mid 2019, valuable information that the Chinese authorities had suppressed knowledge of right up until Mid January 2020 when the exponentially expanding epidemic could no longer be covered up.
This illustrates why one cannot invest in China because one just cannot trust any of the facts and figures that spew out of this orwellian totalitarian state given the states criminal suppression of the facts concerning Covid-19 that predates official announcements by a good 6 months!
Delving deeper into the world of Corona viruses then I am afraid that Covid-19 is just the tip of the iceberg as there are literally hundreds of corona viruses which given that there are 8 billion people on the planet then any one of which could also make the jump to humans over the coming years. So covid-19 vaccinations are just the first phase of what's to come which means it is wise to remain invested in pharma stocks, and especially those producing vaccines the demands for which are only just beginning which is why life science stocks are the focus of my next analysis.
DISCLAIMER - The analysis in this article is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but I cannot accept responsibility for any trading or investing losses that may be incurred as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any investing or trading activities
Stock Market Early Summer Correction Trend Forecast
The stock market is now moving into my forecast time window for a correction to begin of approx 10% decline as illustrated by my trend forecast graph-
9th Feb 2021 Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2021
Current price action has the Dow breaking to a New all time high of 34,548, running the short stops (including mine) built up during the past 2 weeks of consolidation near the last high. So where the Dow is concerned right now the start of the correction remains pending.
However, the correction in tech stocks that we want to see correct has already begun! So it is possible we may see continuing divergence to some degree between the general stock market indices and the tech sector, with likely the pseudo analysts that populate the media will refer to it as sector rotation, when instead it is a a case of many tech stocks such as Tesla being bid up to trade on ridiculous valuations. Whilst the post covid Fed induced economic boom is lifting the downtrodden stocks sectors of 2020 higher, hence the divergence.
So lets see if the ongoing sell off in tech stocks can resolve in buying opportunities in AI stocks.
Firstly What are Buying Levels?
Buying levels are high probability technical levels that a stock 'could' trade down to during a correction i.e. an achievable technical chart level that could be used to for instance to put in buy limit orders at just above the buying level if one is eager to accumulate more stock into any particular company as an example last September the Buying Level for Google (Alphabet) was $1395, so a limit order at $1395 or higher would be the objective depending on how eager one is to gain exposure to Google i.e. If I really wanted to buy more Google at the time then the limit order would be OVER $1400 as stocks tend to find support at round numbers, whilst if I was less inclined to buy Google then the Buying level would be at $1395, lower than that and there is a decreasing probability that a buy will be triggered.
Stocks Expensive or Cheap Indicator (EC)
This basically condenses down some 12 financial indicators I track for most stocks to determine if they are expensive or cheap (EC), as stock prices are usually not a good indicator of value.
At it's most basic the higher the number the more expensive a stock is and conversely the lower the number the cheaper a stock is. Where a reading of 20-60 tends to be the sweet spot for most AI stocks as it implies earnings growth coupled with sustainable speculative interest and thus results in good trending charts with support during corrections, where value tends to be fair so as to enable one to accumulate stock.
Whilst readings above 60 increasingly indicate high levels of speculative interest in future earnings growth. However, this does not automatically mean that a stock trading over 60 should not be bought or sold, it just means that there is a lot of speculative interest in that stock so expect greater price volatility as investors are more likely to react to news events. So I would still invest in a stocks trading over 60 if they have a good reason to justify such speculative interest i.e. such as AMD and Nvidia as being higher risk stocks. Or Amazon of a say 6 months ago that was set to greatly profit from covid-19 lockdown's.
Over 100 is where stocks are becoming a bit to hot to handle where holding let alone buying depends on understanding what's in the pipeline, what it is driving the stocks into the stratospheric valuations such as AMD first killing Intel and now giving Nvidia a run for it's money. Whilst there will be some such as Amazon, I can't quite fathom the high valuation hence reduce my exposure to.
Whilst readings Under 20 suggests little speculative interest to drive stock prices significantly higher, so likely to expect trading ranges and thus tend to be sleeping giants in the AI mega-trend. Also could be signaling problems with the stocks i.e. such as Intel losing the CPU war to AMD which has has made Intel a disliked stock to hold whilst AMD has been heavily bid up into fever making it an expensive buy.
Buy % Rating
The the Buy percent indictor is how good of a buy a stock is right now which is based on valuations and short-term stock trends. So 100% means a VERY GOOD BUY, whilst 0% means a bad buy with 50% neutral. Note this is in terms of BUYING and NOT SELLING! So understand 0% is NOT a SELL rating, it just means that it's a good time to buy a particular stock in terms of price trend and valuation right now at the time of analysis.
AI Stock Buy % Rating Review
Here's a quick review of my last update of 28th Feb 2021 that incorporated the new short-term Buy % indicator.
So how did the buy % rating perform compared to what has subsequently transpired ?
100% Amazon $3312 vs $3092 +7.5%
100% AMD $78.8 vs $78 +1%
85% Facebook $319.8 vs $254 +26%
75% Google $2398 vs $2016 +19%
75% Intel $57.5 vs $61 - 5.5%
75% NVIDIA $592 vs $548 +8%
70% IBM $145.5 vs $119 +22%
65% Microsoft $252.5 vs $226 +11.7%
Overall the Buy % proved useful in identifying stocks that had a high probability for trending higher and thus to not risk waiting for lower prices before buying.
TOP AI Mega-trend Stocks Analysis
1. GOOGLE - $2398
Google has had a spectacular bull run to stand up 34% year to date! In terms of valuations Google's stock price is running a little ahead of itself on an EC of 49 against 44 in February. I consider a sweet buying spot for Google when EC is below 40 which would imply a fair price for Google around 2000. So Google is over priced at $2400, in terms of current earnings. In terms of a Buy %, Google is neutral on 50%.
The stock is overbought and likely to correct into the range of $2000 to $2100, i.e. fair value and support area. Therefore the buying level for Google is $2100 or about a 13% discount on it's current price. So again, I am NOT going to Sell Google stock to try and buy back at $2100. Because there is the risk that a correction does not materialise for Google and even if it does it will prove TEMPORARY, so why risk getting ones knickers in a twist for a marginal few percent against the risk of missing out on several hundreds of percent in long run by riding the Google gravy train
2. AMAZON $3312
Amazons stock price is up 7.5% on my last update when I considered it fair value, though now it looking a little pricey with it's EC rising to 66, so I cannot see how Amazon can have much upside in the immediate future. Not a good buy at current levels so the Buy % is 35%.
Clearly Amazon is in a trading range pending a breakout higher, though I don't see how that breakout can happen right now, so the most probably destination is for Amazon to trade down towards the bottom end of the trading range of around $3000, a 10% drop which would make Amazon a much more attractive price to accumulate Amazon at just as was the case in February. Thus the Buying level for Amazon is $3020, with the price expect to spike down as low as $2900. Looking at the past, then it's possible that Amazon could spend the remainder of 2021 stuck in this trading range waiting for earnings to play catchup.
3. MICROSOFT - $252.5
Microsoft is up 12% since my last update, and is now over priced on an EC of 70, against fair value of 55. Unless I am missing something, the stock needs to consolidate it's powerful advance before considering going higher as it is not healthy for a stock to keep becoming more expensive. Maybe it's the 2.1% dividend yield that's attracting investors? But on an EC of 70 it is a little expensive for my taste. Not a good buy at current levels so the Buy % is 35%.
Downside during any correction appears limited to $230. Below which are a series of previous highs from 224 to 227. So there is heavy support under Microsoft. It's difficult to see Microsoft trading much lower than that. Therefore a probable buying level for MSFT is $230.
4. APPLE - $130
I have been bearish on the prospects for Apple to go higher since last November and so far Apple has lived upto my expectations, and it's the first big stock on my list to be down on the year. Apple is trading on an an EC of 81 that is even higher than the 76 of last November. So despite the stock having gone nowhere for the pasty 8 months, I can't see what's going to propel it higher in the near future. Not a good buy at current levels so the Buy % is 35%.
The Apple stock chart is looking weak as after the January high of $145, Apple fell to $116, and has just made a lower high at $137. So it is looking probable that Apple is going to break below the $116 low to target support in the 103 to 105 area. Therefore my buying level for apple is $109, about 16% lower then where it is trading right now.
5. FACEBOOK - $320
Facebook stock has rocketed higher which should not come as much surprise given my last analysis listing it as being CHEAP on an EC of just 28 vs 50 before. However, the surge in stock price has put Facebook back on fair value EC of 48. Will we we get another chance to buy Facebook on an temporary EC of 28? Hard to say because clearly it dawned on many investors during March and April that Facebook was relatively cheap at the time. The buy % for Facebook is 60%, so despite the surge higher Facebook is NOT expensive, which means it's going to be tough to expect much of a discount against it's current price.
Facebook has strong support at just under $300, and then a string of supporting highs all the way to $270. So Facebook has a ton of support under it which means it may not correct much. We can all dream of buying Facebook at $270 during a correction but I think the best we are actually going to get is to just under $300. So my buying level for Facebook is $299. The stock does not appear to have much downside.
6. NVIDIA - $592.5
Nvidia is experiencing price volatility in large part due to too attempts to digest ARM, most recent news being the UK government citing national security concerns prompting investigation into the $40 billion acquisition, just prior to which Nvidia announced 3 new ARM processors focused on server AI , data processing unit, and an autonomous vehicle system on a chip. Whilst the crypto mania continues to result in extremely high demand for Nvidia GPU's. Nvidia's EC level gyrates along with it's stock price to currently stand at 127, against 107 in Feb. The stock currently is over valued which means don't expect Nvidia to rocket higher anytime soon, unless Nvidia gets an early ALL clear regarding it's takeover of ARM.
Nvidia is another stock that is in the process of digesting it's 2020 gains and thus recent breakouts higher have failed with the stock resolving into a wide 20% trading range of between $500 and $600, where Nvidia is a buy at just over $500 and then again at just under $500. Therefore the high probability Buy Level for Nvidia is $505. But again upside appears very limited and so Nvidia is definitely not a good buy at $592.
7. AMD - $78.8
AMD has been the weakest performing stock on my list, down 13% on the year, why? AMD is trading on an EC of 55 which is fairly priced especially when one compares it to the likes of Nvidia (127). So it should be a good buy? Unless there is something going on I am not aware of. The Zen 3 and Epyc processors are Good, GPU's hmm, not quite knocking on Nvidia's door yet, though still has Intel on the ropes, though Intel is priced for armageddon! Maybe it's the market fearing what Nvidia ARMED with ARM could do to AMD? Still compared to it's recent valuations AMD is cheap but that does not mean it can't get cheaper! Especially when one can pick up Intel for peanuts. Something does not seem right, down 13% on the year. Are there tech funds out there in trouble offloading AMD stock on the quiet just as Cathy Wood is probably selling Tesla on the quiet? Something is afoot and I don't know exactly what it is.
AMD stock chart looks toppy, it appears AMD could take a tumble to the next support area of $55 to $60, which would make AMD very cheap! I think we maybe in for one of those market gets the jitters moments, as it appears to me the market is looking for an excuse to sell AMD lower. So on the one hand we have strong fundamentals and on the other hand we have a toppy price chart. If AMD falls then how can Nvidia that is far more expensive not fall further? This is definitely puzzling but not worrying, as in the long-run both AMD and Nvidia will trade to new all time highs. Normally I would say the buying level is $75. But there is a better than 50/50 probability that AMD is going to break the low and tumble to next support in the $55 to $60 area. Therefore the buying level for AMD in this analysis is $60, as the markets appear to want to see at least AMD take a tumble, that's what the chart and the valuation suggests. The alternative (less probable) is that $75 holds during the correction. In terms of buy % then it will have to be a neutral 50%.
The bottom line the company is continue to move in the right direction in terms of fundamentals regardless of what the price chart suggests for it's near term fate. AMD is a GOOD long-term hold, and current valuation is fairly reasonable so maybe $75 will hold for a trend back towards $100.
11. IBM - $145.5
If Intel is Cheap and then IBM is even more so, this tech sleeping giant is trading on an EV of .just 7. Whilst Intel is still stuck on 14nm for desktop / workstation cpus, just managing to make it to 10nm on server chips. whilst AMD is onto it's 2nd generation of 7nm processors and next year will make the move to 5nm courtesy of TSMC, with Intel forced to seek TSMC to produce it's 13th Gen processors in 2023. Of course not all nanometres are the same but Intel's latest 11th Gen processors really are garbage no matter how many ++++ Intel adds on to the end of 14nm.
So where do you does IBM the sleep giant stand in processor nm terms? 10nm? 7nm? 5nm? 3nm? Think again, 2nm! That's what you call cutting edge! Though of course IBM does not produce processors but it does do R&D. But is it true 3nm or is it one of the ++++ tricks that Intel try's to pull? What counts is transistor density per mm2 rather than gate size.
Well yes, it looks like IBM is leading the pack, you may ask what's the big deal if IBM does not produce processors, the answer is PATENTS! IBM licences it's technology to others to produce and IBM got there first! Little of this is priced into the stock price, for if it where IBM would probably be trading at double it's current price.
In technical terms it confirms what I have been stating for several years that MOORES LAW IS NOT DEAD! Transistor shrinkage is going to go to well under 1 nm, probably down to 0.5nm! Also IBM has been busy buying a string of small cap tech stocks over the past 12 months, at least 10 purchases.
So you should not be surprised that whilst most other stocks have been drifting lower, IBM has soared towards recent highs. However before you pop the corks, understand that IBM has been stuck in a decade long trading range of about $150 to $100. Currently the stock is trading near the upper end of this trading range. Of course we are invested to capitalise upon an eventual breakout higher, so the strategy for many years has been to accumulate IBM between $110 and $100 for which there tends to be opportunities most years. Unfortunately one cannot say WHEN IBM will break to new highs, for it has been here at $150 many times before over the past 10 years.
The market remains blind to IBM because it has been asleep for so long that few take notice of what IBM is upto! All eyes are on the FAANG's, few care to take a peek at IBM despite the fact that it is dirt cheap! IBM is a sleeping giant with flickering eyelids, perhaps this is the time when it wakes up and soars into the stratosphere to join it's brethren such as AMD, Nvidia and TSMC. One things for sure all those who sell IBM at $148 will regret in years to come! The buying level has to be based on technical's that suggest the next stop for a stock in a trading range should be to target support at $115 and $103, therefore the Buying Level is $116 and a Buy rating 45% given that it is at the top of it's trading range, which means probability favours a correction.. Mean while bank that 8% dividend (on purchases at $116 or better).
12. INTEL - $57.7
What if you could buy TSMC for about 1/3rd the price? We'll that's INTEL! It's cheap and has been cheap for a while because of BAD management! The guy or gal at the top really does matter!
Intel trades on an EC of 7 whilst TSM is on 59! But everyone's focused on buying TSM! This illustrates how the market has it's FAVOURITES and its Dogs, today's favourites are the likes of TSMC and Tesla, of course the market focus on TSMC at least is for GOOD reasons, still that does not distract from the fact that Intel is CHEAP in terms of valuation. It's NOT going to go BUST! There are a lot of pros and cons to investing in Intel many of which I have covered over the past couple of years. but the bottom line is that Intel is an american chip manufacturer so is in US strategic interests for it to not only survive but prosper to offset the threat from China, Taiwan and other asian chip manufacturers. Intel could become what TSM is to the markets today.
I am sure I mentioned last year that in a few years time I would not be surprised if Intel trades as high as $200 a share, so there is a LOT of upside with little downside risk. AND it pays a dividend!
Clearly Intel is in a trading range of between $66 and $44, a level that it tends to frequent often though does not stay below 50 for long. Therefore the buying level is 48. I think in a few years time many people will be kicking themselves for not having had the foresight to invest in Intel when it was dirt cheap. Especially given that there is a chip shortage so even Intel's Rocket lake garbage is in high demand!
AI Stocks Buying Levels Update May 2021
Here is my updated AI stocks table with buying levels to capitalise upon during the anticipated stock market correction. In terms of overall valuations the portfolio is a little more expensive today than at my last update with some individual stocks very overbought so should be primed for a correction during May as I first flagged to expect in my analysis of 9th of Feb.
The buying levels average to a 12% drop in tech stock prices with the average buy % below 50%, so overall portfolio expectations are for weakness ahead. The strongest stock of the lot is probably Facebook, then TSM. Weakest stocks are likely to be Apple, Nvidia, then Amazon and Microsoft. So I am expecting stock prices to typically fall by between 10% to 15%. As given the valuations and neutral to negative buy %'s. So I am not seeing how the stocks can just continue trending higher.
So what am I going to do
As I view any sell off in GOOD stocks as being temporary then I am not selling anything. It's not worth the risk of exiting and then desperately trying to get back in, as I illustrated in my last exclusive to Patrons analysis, so if you have not already done so do read that first to get into the right mindset for investing LEARN TO INVEST - When to Buy and Sell AI Tech Stocks Such as GOOGLE. Off course everyone's circumstances are different, so if I was looking to sell for cash then I would probably cash in the more expensive holdings such as Amazon, Microsoft, Apple and Nvidia. But I'm not so I won't.
So if the market corrects and stock prices approach their buying levels what's' at the top of buy list?
I would buy Google at $2100. Microsoft at $230, Amazon on a dip below $3000. Nvidia below $500, probably around $485, I would definitely buy AMD at $60. I already own a lot of IBM so doubt would buy more. I would buy more Intel at $48. In terms of funds I would buy ROBO at $58.
GPU Mining FREE MONEY!
Meanwhile crypto mining in the background on ones desktop PC with Nice Hash Quick Miner (payout's in Bitcoin), continues, yielding about £160 cash per month after electricity costs, the requirement being an Nvidia GPU with at least 6gb of vram. Whilst AMD GPU's can use the regular Nice Hash miner though that uses third party algorithms so is higher risk to install and use.
Whilst all those who think is too late then consider this, the yield in bitcoins keeps increasing as the Ethereum price goes up! Remember one mines in Ethereum and gets paid in bitcoin. Here's what a RTX 3080 currently yields on Nicehash, $14.74 per day! That' is a good 30% higher then a month ago! So it's not too late to start crypto mining in the background with ones GPU.
Again the current state of affairs of being able to get FREE money is time limited i.e. I can not see it lasting for more than a couple more months, especially as EIP 1559 is coming in July 2021 when ethereum mining payout's are expected to fall by about 50%. So profit from the crazy crypto mania bubble free money bonanza while you can, and just as I do, don't hold on to your crypto's! What I do is transfer from Nicehash to Coinbase which is pretty straight forward to do and does not incur any fees (minimum payout from Nicehash to Coinbase is about £21 / $29), and from there I can spend the bitcoins, convert to other crypto's or withdraw to my bank account, whilst US users can also withdraw to their paypal accounts, but for now I mostly spend the crypto's given that a number of services offer discounts when paying in BTC, in fact over the past couple of months I have mined and spent £370 in BTC generated from one desktop pc, at $3 per month that would be enough to cover my patreon fee for the next 14 years!
So if you have an Nvidia GPU with at least 6gb of vram then you are literally throwing free money away by not mining in the background with Nicehash. Note I do not advocate buying hardware specifically to mine with as GPU prices are double to triple what they should be, just if ones existing hardware is upto speed then well you are passing up free money.
Step 1 - Mine with Nicehash
Step 2 - Transfer bitcoins to Coinbase
Step 3 - SPEND IT!
CHIA Crypto Farming with Your Hard Drives Insanity!
The crypto mania has now expanded to allow one to FARM the free space on ones hard drives! The CHIA coin went public only on the 3rd of May following which the price has seen explosive growth, fast blowing away the opening estimate of $20, instead to currently trade at $1140.
I too decided to give Chia farming a go by seeking to commit upto 20tb of my free hard drive space to see what happens. However, the network has seen explosive growth that until the pooling of farms materialises then I don't think it's going to be possible for any ordinary farmer with their small 10tb to 20tb farms to make any CHIA coins.
The growth has been that EXPLOSIVE, and as you can imagine, large hard drives that first doubled in price and then vanished form the likes of Amazon all in a few short days (luckily I stocked up on my storage needs in March, so I am good for at least a year) as crypto miners reacted to the high opening price of CHIA and virtually bought up the whole worlds stock of large capacity hard drives ! So you can imagine I am NOT going to suggest to any of my Patrons to consider start farming with CHIA because it is already TOO LATE - THIS IS REALLY INSANE! The governments are going to act to regulate the crypto space because of the current loony toons state of affairs!
In fact one of the stocks I have selected in my forthcoming analysis on high risk tech stocks to invest in for the long run is Western Digital, so it might be worth gaining exposure to due to the surge in demand for what they primarily manufacture.
What's going to be the next piece of hardware that's going to get it's supply wiped out by crypto mania?
Maybe they should create a carbon block chain coin where the more carbon ones pulls out of the air into small cubes then the more carbon coins one gains. Given what I have seen witness happen with CHIA then that WOULD SOLVE the carbon aspect of climate change within a few short months!
Anyway for now I will continue to plot my farm towards planned capacity of 20tb (current 5tb) and see what happens. Though it is doubtful I am going to make any money given the expansion in the size of network space over the past few days.
My analysis schedule includes:
- More High Risk Tech Stocks - 30% done
- Bitcoin Trend Forecast - 40% done
- UK House Prices Trend Analysis - 10% done
- How to Get Rich! - 70% done
- US Dollar and British Pound analysis
- Gold and SIlver Price Analysis
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Your analyst working on compiling a dozen or so high risk stocks to invest for the long-run.
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