Ancient Enemy wishlist formula accuracy

So how accurate was my Steam wishlist formula for the Ancient Enemy launch week?

The formula says: 

Pre-launch WLs x 0.5 = week 1 unit sales.

We got: drum roll... 0.47 sales per wishlist. 

So yeah, for us at least, it was very accurate. 

Conversion

The 7 day conversion for wishlist emails sent out was 11.8%. We also made almost exactly 3x as many "organic" sales as that. This is how the formula works by the way, not 50% of wishlist converting.

The astute among you will notice that 11.8% x 4 (1 part wishlists + 3 parts organic) = 47%. Which ties up with the 0.47 sales per wishlist figure I mentioned at the start of this article.

What happened next?

Here are some ratios relating to the two weeks after Ancient Enemy launched. 

week 1 sales = day 1 sales x 4.65 (note day 1 is not a full day)

week 2 sales = week 1 sales x1.09

I've seen enough launches now that as a rule of thumb I say day 1 sales get roughly repeated on day 2. Then the remaining 5 days in the week only generate 2x day1. So week 1 total is about 4x day 1.

As soon as the launch discount switches off traffic drops (maybe Steam shows the game less often) and sales drop quite a bit. We are still making a decent amount of sales per day but nothing like week 1.

At this rate month 1 will maybe be 1.2x week1. Maybe a bit higher if we are lucky, but probably not. That's kinda normal.  Base level sales for games these days are pretty low and most revenue seems to come in weeklong discounts or special Steam sales.

The main thing is we hope to hit at least 3x week1 over the whole year, but ideally 5x (or higher). 3x is definitely doable unless something goes bad with the market. 5x is possible but tricky.

We do NOT plan to deeply discount this game. It's got great reviews and people love it, so we think that word of mouth and the review score will tempt a lot of people to get it at a decent price. We'll report back on how that goes I guess!

We're hoping to do some more deep-dive posts relating to wishlists soon, so stay tuned.

Meanwhile, here are some other posts on Steam wishlists: 

https://www.patreon.com/posts/26937964 

https://www.patreon.com/posts/30230585 


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