COVID-19 Q&A


COVID-19 Q&A:

Note: I have included all references at the bottom of this post. Please read this document in full even if you are looking for a specific detail. I’ll try to answer as many questions as I can.

Where did it start?

We don’t actually know the total facts about how/where/when/why about Covid-19. We know a lot, just not enough to place total blame. The first known accepted case of Covid-19 was a 55 year old male  from Hubei province on November 17th in China. (i)   (ii)  An epidemic was reported in the central China city of Wuhan in January, two months before the outbreak became a global health crisis. That’s it as far as solid facts goes for it’s beginnings. (iii)   

Was it because the people of Wuhan were eating bats or snakes?

The fact is, there are no known wild bats in the province of Wuhan that have this strain of the Covid-19 virus. There are however bats that have many strains of the SARS virus in the same location. (iv)  The selling of ‘wild game’ is/were common in the markets of China, so there is a small possible chance that it was spread via wild game (v) , but the odds are against it (vi) . Snakes have even a less chance of being at the root of all this, although bats may have been the original source of a SARS like relative to the Covid-19 it doesn’t follow that just because A = B, and C = B that D= B as well don’t fall for logical fallacies when reading these footnotes. (vii) 

Was Covid-19 a created Bio-Weapon?

First, you have to understand that EVERY country in the world that has a level 4 lab or higher is creating bio-engineered viruses everyday, and in my humble opinion they should continue to do so. The reason this is a good idea to two fold. On one hand Crisper technology is on the verge of allowing terrorist organizations to create very dangerous threats, and if the governments’ lab manage to create them or something similar first, they also get a head start on creating vaccines and treatments. On the other hand, viruses have a huge potential to deliver genetic code directly to stem cells, which means that they could be used to insert gene altering medicine to cure things like cancer. I know that sounds scary but it is a needed step in our knowledge if we are ever to progress as a race.

I am not saying that it wasn’t a bio-engineered virus, I am saying that it doesn’t really matter.

Second, the main three reasons that there are rumors that Covid-19 is a bio-weapon, in short form are the following:


  1. The level 4 lab located in Wuhan province.
     
  2. The low levels of Russian infections.
     
  3. Claims of HIV like DNA code in Covid-19
     

Let me debunk these one at a time.

Wuhan Institute of Virology:

“In December 2019, cases of pneumonia associated with an unknown coronavirus were reported to health authorities in Wuhan. The Wuhan Institute of Virology checked its coronavirus collection, and found that the new virus was 96 percent identical to one that its researchers had sampled from horseshoe bats in southwest China. (viii) 

Did you know that Chimpanzees and Humans only differ in genetics by 1.2%? (ix) 

A four percent genetics code difference between the viruses in the lab, and the one that causes Covid-19 is huge, greater than 400% exponentially than the difference between chimps and humans. It is very likely, that the original source of the Covid-19 virus is physically close to where the lab got their source from, and that is what that lab is for, to find threats, and figure out what to do about it.

Russia’s infection rate:

Total myth. Russia has been infected with Covid-19 (x)   as of this writing they are following the same epidemic pattern as the rest of the world.

HIV DNA in Covid-19:

Sort of a total myth. This is where understanding only a little comes to creating panic and harm. As Preppers we know that the most important thing people should have been running to the store for was Vitamin C and D (more on that in a bit, please read everything here, don’t skip) not toilet paper since Covid-19 doesn’t have diarrhea in it’s symptoms list. As a result, people thinks because they quickly read something about a prep list from a Prepper site that includes toilet paper on the list they should hoard immediately. They end up ill prepared even more so than they would have been had they read everything month ago.

Covid-19 does have similar DNA in it that is like HIV, so does the common cold, and almost every other virus on the planet. This fact is like saying we are related to monkeys because we share 96% of the DNA as them, (but we also have the same number of chromosomes as pigs folks!) So it is not that an important a fact.

Covid-19 doesn’t effect the immune system like AIDS, (measles is far worse). There is nothing to worry about when it comes to what the DNA is compared to HIV… not that there isn’t things to consider with other facts, keep reading.

Is there already a Vaccine for Covid-19?

Actually, there are over 20 vaccines being worked on, but none of them have been proven to be ready for human testing or mass market (xi) . There are a few vaccines that look promising, but it will still be a couple of years before everyone gets it. (xii)  This is why “flatting the curve” (xiii)  is so important, as there are other options we can use to save lives, especially in the elderly and those with compromised immune systems.

How bad is it going to get, how many will die?

This has a scary answer, but understand that even most things that are scary are due to misunderstanding, or ‘fearing the unknown’. So bare with me.

There are three separate possible death ‘indexes’  to answer this, and it depends in part on who you believe, or expect to happen. In addition to that there is a ‘factor’ that I need to explain at the same time, so I will do my best to combine both in an easy to understand format.

First, the three indexes are based on whether or not you believe and trust the accuracy of China, or Great Briton, and as well if we can ‘flatten the curve’. These numbers will ‘peak’ on one of the following dates, give or take a few days. Either, April 20 (th) , May 20 (th) , or June 20 (th) . If we believe that China’s reports (xiv)  and epidemiology (xv)  of the virus is accurate then the first date should be around the time we start to see the ‘new cases’ slowly start to drop as we started to see them increase at the beginning of  all this. If we hold that Great Briton (xvi)  was more accurate or more closest to what we can expect in North America (xvii) , then  curve should peak around the end of May. However…

If we are lucky, if each of us stays home as much as we can, if we all wash our hands to the point of being OCD, if each of us stays away (physically, please call them on the phone) from those with weak immune systems like the elderly… we might get this to peak near the end of June or even the beginning of July. The same number people are going get infected, but how many people die really depends on whether we can slow this down to a crawl so that the hospitals can deal with it. This has to be a global effort, there is no excuse for not doing our part to help those that get it by simply being a little more distance, a little more clean, and a little more kind.

The real numbers are more complex than just the number of reported infections. If for example we start with 100 infected in a given area, and two day later there are 200, that really doesn’t mean anything. It also wouldn’t matter if we were talking about 100,000 to 200,000. What matters is the multiplying factor. If the factor is greater than 1.01 the virus is still spreading. If it falls below that the virus has begun it’s drop of spread even if the number still go up. (xviii)  That’s what we are waiting for.  

The longer it takes for this to be over is the better option, and the less people will die. It’s that simple.  

Now for some numbers. Every two days or so the numbers of infected on the news is going to double until we hit the one of the dates above. That translates into a lot, in fact it’s such a huge number within the population of the USA I am not even going to post it. What I will say that unless you personally, start following the new social rules of keeping your distance from others, washing your hands, staying home if you have ANY symptoms, you are going to help kill 2.2 million (xix)  people in the USA alone from COVID-19 and maybe more from secondary causes (if hospitals are swamped with Covid-19, what happens to the victims of car accidents for example?). IF you personally take on the responsibility of the people in your community, we could cut that number down to less than half.  

At the beginning of this month I lost my second oldest son, (not to Covid-19), he died just as this pandemic was taking off. I would hate anyone to lose a loved one due to someone not doing what ever they could, or not doing something as simple as washing your hands. Please take this seriously, YOU CAN ACTUALLY DO SOMETHING, you can isolate when you have the smallest of symptoms, I estimate that over 20% of the population will have been infected with this virus by the time they read this, AND NEVER KNEW. Only 20% of the people infected have a clue, and out of that less than 2-3% will get seriously sick from that previous 20%. Wearing a mask only protects others from getting it from you, wearing rubber gloves doesn’t do anything to help you if you are still touching your face or eyes. Cleaning is the only solution to slow this down.  

Ibunprofen and Blood-Thinners are they bad for Covid-19?

As I was writing this, the news popped up with a tidbit about this very topic, it instantly pissed off that they down played the risk . It took me three seconds to get the official WHO warning (xx) . The risk factor has to do with damage to the liver. Now, it seems that the source of the WHO warning has changed their opinion to stating that it might not be a bad thing, and then again changed their opinion and took the disclaimer down. (xxi)  (footnote is cache version)

So here are the facts as I know them. Covid-19 has three stages, Mild, Severe, and Critical.  

Mild disease: non-pneumonia and mild pneumonia; this occurred in 81% of cases.

Severe disease: dyspnea, respiratory frequency ≥ 30/min, blood oxygen saturation (SpO2) ≤ 93%, PaO2/FiO2 ratio [the ratio between the blood pressure of the oxygen (partial pressure of oxygen, PaO2) and the percentage of oxygen supplied (fraction of inspired oxygen, FiO2)] < 300, and/or lung infiltrates > 50% within 24 to 48 hours; this occurred in 14% of cases.

Critical disease: respiratory failure, septic shock, and/or multiple organ dysfunction (MOD) or failure (MOF); this occurred in 5% of cases. (xxii)  (March 8 (th)  2020)

Anything that can damage or weaken the liver, is a risk. So if you are on prescribe blood thinners, I recommend you first contact your doctor and ask about your medication and if it damages any internal organ, specifically the liver or lungs. As for Advil/Ibuprofen just use Tylenol instead, I personally have a problem with this as Advil doesn’t effect a slipped disc in my back, and Tylenol does, but why risk it? (Besides Tylenol is better at reducing fever).  

My note on elderberry online, has to do with the claim that it is also a blood thinner, I am not a herbalist, so I don’t know for sure but if the claim is true, your better off talking to your pharmacist, heck, your better off talking to them anyway.


- Wolfe

danwolfe.me


i https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/13/first-covid-19-case-happened-in-november-china-government-records-show-report 


ii https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3074991/coronavirus-chinas-first-confirmed-covid-19-case-traced-back 


iii https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/where-coronaviruses-come-from-67011 


iv https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-chinas-bat-woman-hunted-down-viruses-from-sars-to-the-new-coronavirus1/ 


v https://www.nationalgeographic.com/animals/2020/01/china-bans-wildlife-trade-after-coronavirus-outbreak/ 


vi https://www.latimes.com/food/story/2020-03-11/coronavirus-china-wet-markets 


vii https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/which-species-transmit-covid-19-to-humans-were-still-not-sure-67272 


viii https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-chinas-bat-woman-hunted-down-viruses-from-sars-to-the-new-coronavirus1/ 


ix http://humanorigins.si.edu/evidence/genetics 


x https://www.statista.com/statistics/1102935/coronavirus-cases-by-region-in-russia/ 


xi https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/nih-clinical-trial-investigational-vaccine-covid-19-begins 


xii https://www.newscientist.com/article/2237742-how-soon-will-we-have-a-coronavirus-vaccine-the-race-against-covid-19/ 


xiii https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-flatten-the-curve.html 


xiv https://www.thestar.com.my/news/regional/2020/03/13/china-says-its-covid-19-peak-is-over 


xv https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic_in_November_2019_%E2%80%93_January_2020 


xvi https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/news--wuhan-coronavirus/ 


xvii https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_Kingdom 


xviii https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.21.20026229v1.full.pdf 


xix https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-symptom-progression-11-03-2020.pdf 


xx https://www.sciencealert.com/who-recommends-to-avoid-taking-ibuprofen-for-covid-19-symptoms 


xxi http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:https://www.rb.com/media/news/2020/march/the-european-medicines-agency-confirms-that-there-is-currently-no-scientific-evidence-establishing-a-link-between-ibuprofen-and-worsening-of-covid-19/ 


xxii https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK554776/

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