Daily Picks 11-03-16
Last Night’s Plays

Last night was a good night both financially and personally for me. Not only did we go 3-0 with our picks last night for +2.7units, but my beloved Chicago Cubs ended a 108-year championship drought, winning the World Series in dramatic (heart attack inducing) fashion. Congrats to the Cubs on an amazing season! Now, back to last night’s picks. My model was all over that Canucks/Habs game. A direct quote from yesterday post: “I think the Habs win a low scoring game tonight, and may even shut out the Canucks.” We played Under 5 goals, and Habs in regulation, both cashing easily. Habs continue to role, Canucks continue to get shut out (3/4 game). Our 3rd play wasOver 5.5 goals in the Red Wings/Flyers game. It took the Flyers 6 men, but they tied the game 3-3 with about a minute left and ended up winning 4-3 in OT. My model is crushing the over/under picks right now, 4-0 to start November. And with that we are on to today’s picks.

Today’s Picks

Philadelphia Flyers @ New York Islanders

We were on the Flyers yesterday, and I’m having trouble coming up with new things to say about them today other than, they beat the Red Wings! In all seriousness, the Flyers haven’t shown any signs that their offense is going to slow down. They have scored 39 goals this season (2nd best) and allowed 41(league worst) and the Over/Under record in Flyers games is now 3-0 in the second of a back-back, 4-0 on the road, 8-0 when the total line is 5.5, 9-1-1overall, and 4-1-1 when Steve Mason is in net (he is the projected starter tonight and allowing 3.67 G/game). At some point they will go through a slump, but I don’t think that starts today. The Islanders are a mess right now. During their6-1 loss to the Lightning, fans called for their head coach, Jack Capuano, to be fired. Here are the scores of the last 5 Islanders game: 1-6, 5-1, 2-4, 2-3, and 6-3. Every game went over the total, except for the 2-3 loss to the Habs, which was a push. Jaroslav Halak, who will be in net tonight for the Islanders, is allowing 3.6 G/game and that is a recipe for disaster against this Flyers team. It cashed for us yesterday and I’m back on the Over 5.5 goals in this game as well.

***Flyers/Islanders Total Goals Over 5.5 -115***

Colorado Avalanche @ Chicago Blackhawks

I have previously said that I wasn’t going to bet on any moreBlackhawks games until they figured out their penalty kill situation. Well they haven’t given up a power play goal in their last 7 penalty kills and have only allowed 2 goals in their last 12. I’m not saying they are going to be world beaters on the PK, but it looks like they’ve taken steps to correct a disastrous start for their special teams. At even strength the Blackhawks have the best goal differential in the league at +14 and Corey Crawford has been near perfect in net saving, 185 of 189 shots (.979)! That’s incredible! Their offense has been clicking lately too. The Hawks are averaging 3.5 G/game and that number goes to 4.0 G/game at home, where they be taking on an up and downColorado team tonight. The Avalanche are coming of a bad loss to a mediocrePredators team. The Avs have a below average offense (2.5 G/game) and tonight’s starter in net, Semyon Varlamov, is allowing 3.17 GA/game. They have played slightly better on the road than at home, going 3-2 in their 5 road games this season, but offense has struggled at times, they have a -2 goal differential at even strength and their PK% isn’t great either (77.1). The Hawks are 5-1-1 at home this season, and my model likes them to get to win tonight. The value isn’t great on the ML, but I think Crawford has a good night, and they get it done in regulation.

***Chicago Blackhawks in Regulation -110***

Boston Bruins @ Tampa Bay Lightning

This is the last play of the day I’m writing up and my battery is starting to run a little low on my laptop so this may be a little shorter than usual because I want to get these picks up for you guys. My model likes the under in this game. I’ve got a projected total of well under the line of 5 and both of the goalies in net tonight have been really good to start the season and with the under cashing a combined 6/8 games. Boston’s D has stepped it up lately and although the last two games for the lightning have flown over the total, their offense tends to struggle against teams with stronger defenses. I expect Boston and Rask to keep this game close, and there may be some value onBoston to win at +135, but there is great value on the under at +120, and I trust my model to get it right. Message me @BlueLineBets on twitter if you have more questions about this game!

***Bruins/Lightning Total Goals Under 5 +120***

Other Games and NotesOne other game I considered tonight is Under 5.5 goals in the Canucks/Senators game, but Anderson has left the team to be with his wife again (best wishes to her in her struggle with cancer) and the Senators will be starting former Penguin Mike Condon in net tonight, who they only just acquired yesterday. I decided to lay off, but even with Condon in net, my model likes the under in that game.

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