Things were a bit quieter today in the forex market. We didn't see the huge moves we experienced yesterday, but things did still move a bit. Our AUD/USD long was stopped out, but our GBP/JPY short is looking great. Here's a look at today's trade tracker:
Looking solely at the daily Euro chart, it's a bit tempting... We're sitting just above trend line support, just above the 200-day SMA, and in the middle of the long-term range.
Add these up and there's a decent argument to take a shot at longs. But the trade tracker isn't showing an opportunity here because none of the trends align right now. Because of that, I'm staying on the sidelines and waiting for a better opportunity.
Our biggest change since yesterday is the development in USD/CAD. You'll notice that the 4-hour, 1-hour, and 15-minute timeframes are all in uptrends. I'll admit, these uptrends aren't that strong or pronounced... but they qualify as uptrends regardless.
Because of that, I'm taking a long based on the 1-hour chart (attached). I've placed a limit order to buy at 1.3100 with a stop loss at 1.3050 -- the target is currently open.
UPDATE: Just filled while typing.
When I can avoid it, I don't take trades based on the 15-minute chart. But yesterday we had nothing but a couple opportunities on that timeframe. The 15-minute just tends to be a bit too noisy for me, although it can provide good opportunities in a strong trend. Perhaps that was my mistake with the AUD/USD longs yesterday... the trend really wasn't that strong yet. We were stopped for a 25 pip lose.
The Aussie chart is now pretty indecisive and leaves us with no trade opportunities based on our tracker. So I'm on the sidelines now and will revisit the pair tomorrow.
After entering short yesterday based on the 15-minute chart, this pair has been good to us. The original sell was done at 157.81, so we've got almost 80 pips in unrealized gains now. I've since moved my stop loss down and set a target of 156.15.
So I'm simply holding my shorts in this pair.
I just recently took a short position in USD/JPY. I'm currently short from 108.87 with a stop at 109.40 based on the 15-minute chart.
Sterling is still giving a sell signal on the 15-minute timeframe. But I'm not doing anything in this pair right now. I've got exposure to Sterling via GBP/JPY, and I'm happy with that current exposure.
That being said, I do like the rejection from the 50-hour SMA, so that could warrant a pretty good trade for those that aren't already short Sterling. I've also drawn a trend line going back to mid April that was retested along with the 50-hour SMA (attached).