M O T H P U N T 3 2 1 +

Wales!  I'm going to keep this fairly short, because this is a tip which is based more on gut feel than rigorous statistical analysis. 

"Is that a good alarm?" 

"Have you ever known an alarm to be good, Mr. Simpson?"

You have been warned.

Let's do the rigorous statistical analysis first. Put your mind at ease. 

Cyprus are shit. Don't be fooled by the fact that they've won half their games in the group to date. One was a (frankly hilarious) away win over Bosnia, the other two drubbings of Andorra (population, 79,218). Previous to this Euro campaign, they'd notched 2 wins in 29 games,  one a friendly victory over Moldova, the other a World Cup qualifying win over Iceland, with their remaining matches either being defeats or 0-0 draws . In fact, it is precisely five years to the day since Cyprus were last involved in a score draw, another hilarious match, a 4-4 draw in Portugal.  But let's not be complacent; in the last lustrum (I'm totally bringing that word back), they've successfully bored Jordan, Iceland, Switzerland, Albania, Serbia and Northern Ireland into 0-0 draws. 

But this is New Wales, who are the New Belgium Are The New Brazil. They're full of belief that they can qualify for an international tournament for only the second time in their history, sitting three points clear atop a group featuring Belgium (no longer New), also, some other teams. Are Wales about to foul this up by dropping points in Cyprus? I think it highly unlikely. Chris Coleman's taking no chances, and has gone Full Derren on the ref, tipping him off about the Cypriot penchant for dragging flickknives down the hamstrings of highly strung Welsh superstars like Gareth Bale, Aaron Ramsey, and some bloke called Jazz (srsly). I think Wales win this match at least 70% of the time. Evens is an absolute bargain.

(EDIT) As I posted this, the price jumped to 2.2. That's where it was when I got the screenshot, but it was 2.02 when I placed the bet and posted the article, so it shall 

be recorded at 2.02. #dodgytipster