The Next Khris Davis/Mark Trumbo
Over the last week, Hunter Renfroe, Khris Davis, and Mark Trumbo all hit four home runs. Also, Renfroe, Davis, and Trumbo are basically the same player at different ages and with different random events affecting their careers. Let's explore.

The Profile

High power, high whiff, low average, low OBP, breakout season around age 26 to 28.

The Best Case

Khris Davis: 30 years old. On pace for third straight 40 home run season. Exceptionally consistent full season production despite streaky runs of power.

Rough projected stats in a generic healthy season:

9% BB%, 26% K%, 15.3% SwStr%, 42 HR, .247/.325/.525, 43% FB, 43% hard contact

It Didn't Quite Happen

Mark Trumbo: 32 years old. Hit 47 home runs in 2016. Below replacement level production in 935 plate appearances since then. Streaky runs of power.

Rough projected stats in a generic healthy season: 

7% BB%, 24%  K%, 14% SwStr%, 33 HR, .250/.305/.475, 40% FB, 40% hard contact

The Future

Hunter Renfroe: 26 years old. Has yet to play a full season in the majors. 1.5 career WAR in 773 plate appearances. Streaky runs of power.

Rough projected stats in a generic healthy season: 

8% BB%, 25% K%, 14% SwStr%, 32 HR, .245/.310/.485, 40% FB, 40% hard contact

The Conclusion

So, I think you probably see where I'm leading you. Renfroe is a Davis-Trumbo clone with the two older sluggers offering a crystal ball glance into Renfroe's future. They all have comparable plate discipline and swinging strike issues (For the uninitiated, SwStr% is swinging strike rate). Davis and Trumbo broke out between ages 26 and 28. We can probably expect the same for Renfroe - barring injury. Davis remained productive for three seasons. Trumbo really only had the one good year.

Now is a great time to buy low in dynasty formats - or perhaps this offseason. Be prepared to take a patient approach, and don't be surprised if Renfroe continues to look more like the bad version of Trumbo than the good versions of either player. For that reason, he should be an inexpensive purchase.

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