Real Madrid vs Barcelona (Supercup)
 
Real Madrid 236 * 9..1 - 1000 = 1147,6 profit

Draw 409 * 1 - 1 000= -591 loss

Barcelona 265 *0.3 - 1000 = -920 loss

Goals give: 

Real Madrid 2-3

Barcelona 0-1

So goals supports probabilities as well. 

Conclusion: we bet on Real Madrid. We won.