Today's vote of No confidence sets in motion the procedure that will result in a New leader for the Conservative party. As my analysis of nearly a month ago warned to expect with several possible BrExiteers as potential new leaders such as Boris Johnson and Dominic Raab.
Theresa May No Confidence Vote
May consistent view is that Theresa May, Britain's disastrous Prime Minister will lose a vote of no confidence. However, now that the vote has been announced. The betting markets are clearly favouring Theresa May winning the vote with Betfair offering odds of just 1.4, against 3.35 for her losing today's vote, which presents an risk vs reward betting opportunity.
Furthermore my analysis of the betting markets further fine-tuned expectations of who was most likely to win what I saw as an inevitable Leadership challenge that I will now seek to update.
Theresa May - Exit Dates
Firstly a month ago the odds at 2.9 favoured Theresa May leaving office before the end of December
Sunday 18th November - 4am
The latest odds show a widening in end December and a narrowing in Jan to March, which basically puts her leaving date at a coin toss now i.e. that she could lose today and but still stay on as PM for a few weeks into January rather that resigning. Personally, I still favour Theresa May leaving this month, but it is virtually a coin flip.
Next Tory Leader
Whilst Theresa May has vowed to fight on to win today's vote of no confidence for which she requires at least 50% of Tory MP's to vote for her. However, my consistent view is that her days in office were numbered and so who is most likely to replace her as Britain's Next Prime Minister in the countdown to BrExit day (29th March 2019).
A month ago the betting markets basically put the following four contenders neck and neck of which I most favoured Boris Johnson and rank outsider Jacob Rees-Mogg.
- Dominic Raab
- Sajid Javid
- Boris Johnson
- Michael Gove
18th Nov - 4am
The latest betting now puts Boris Johnson as the favourite though Dominic Raab and Sajid Javid are close at 7.2. Of note is that Jacob Rees-Mogg extending to 22 is now no longer in the running for PM, whilst Michael Gove who I LEAST would want to see as PM continues to cling on in contention at 10.
Therefore my analysis and now the betting markets continue to imply that Boris Johnson is most probable to become Britain's next Prime Minister in the countdown to a probable NO DEAL BREXIT.
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