Hierank

is creating the ultimate all-sports NCAA power ranking algorithm.

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Starting Scout

Limited (10 of 11 remaining)
$1
per month
  • First 11 slots only. Half-off Scout tier.
  • One-week sneak peaks for original content announcements.
  • Exclusive voting power in important polls.
  • Two "I contributed to the Season's Final Score" Hierank vinyl stickers.

Scout

$2
per month
  • One-week sneak peaks for original content announcements.
  • Exclusive voting power in important polls.
  • Two "I contributed to the Season's Final Score" Hierank vinyl stickers.

Rookie

$4
per month
  • One-week sneak peaks for original content announcements.
  • Exclusive voting power in important polls.
  • Two "I contributed to the Season's Final Score" Hierank acrylic coasters.
  • Pride from helping twice as much.

2

patrons

$5

per month

About Hierank

THE SEASON'S FINAL SCORE
Hierank.com

  • Problem
  • Solution
  • Validation
  • Mission
  • Request
  • About Me

PROBLEM

Q: The problem with virtually every single ranking system for NCAA football, and most other sports?

A: They're subjective. Based on votes. Opinions. Historical biases. Media visibility. Geographic proximity. Others' hype. They. Are. Flawed.

There have been multiple attempts to do better; but using too many variables, poor modeling, or just averaged poll data have made all of these attempts either unnecessarily complicated, inferior to human intuition, or just a smarter version of the same bias-problem they sought to escape in the first place.
...
SOLUTION

Hierank breaks free of polling and obscure metrics. It can be dialed-in to assess and rank any large pool of competitors, for any sport.

To achieve this, Hierank observes the outcome of every single contest in a given league (NCAA Football first to maximize interest and relevance to the problem), measures the "dominance" of Winner over Loser within those contests, compares that head-to-head dominance with rivals facing the same competition, and constructs a hierarchical framework of comparisons accounting for "who beat who beat who beat who..." (and by how much) - out to the sixth degree.

Is this 3-9 Big Ten team stronger than that 6-5 MAC team?
How about a 5-5 Sun Belt team vs a 11-0 Missouri Valley (FCS) team?
Who knows? Hierank knows.

Hierank uses this multi-step process to assign an easily-comprehended 0 to 100 Hierank Power to each team, where 50.0 is exactly-average for the league. By this value, all 256 Division I FBS & FCS teams can be accurately assessed, compared, and ranked together.
...

VALIDATION

Beyond asserting that Hierank is "correct", merely because the last section contained big words and decent logic, these rankings have also been rigorously tested - formally and informally - for three years across Division I Football.

Informally, since weekly score entry is still a manual process, we've started tallying every single game 'Correct' or 'Wrong' based on whether our higher-ranked team won:
  • Tracking this week-to-week in 2019 consistently yielded a 68-76% success-rate for our higher-ranked teams.
  • Anecdotally, there was a strong correlation between final score and relative power ratings in most contests, that sharpened further as the season progressed.
Formally, for context on our 68-76% success rate, Hierank has three-times entered ESPN's Capital One Bowl Mania pick'em game:
  • In 2019-20, Hierank picked 29 of 41 Bowl Games correctly, beating 96.2% of ESPN's 500,000 entrants.
  • Hierank's three years of pick'em entries have tied or beat 96.2% of 800,000 entries in 2018, 94.1% of 500,000 entries in 2019, and 96.2% of 500,000 entries in Jan 2020.

We are very confident in the power of the algorithm we have created, and look forward to further-examining Hierank's predictions in relation to betting lines in Fall of 2020.

Our quest to accurately compare looking backward has pushed us to test predictions looking forward. And our documented success making these predictions has been an indicator that Hierank is providing "The Season's Final Score" that we aimed to, indeed.
...

MISSION

Our mission is to provide the most internally-consistent power ratings possible, to become THE ranking authority for late-season NCAA play.

Along with this, we aspire to provide:
  • A historical database of all league and conference rankings and scores
  • A comparison tool for predicting head-to-head outcomes
  • A professionally-rebuilt user interface focusing on data visuals, navigation, and load-speed
  • A bevy of unique insightful analysis from expert writers
  • A YouTube channel with fun lists and original content
  • A community for predicting, arguing, and bonding between passionate fans
  • A mobile app for quicker access to Hierank's insights
  • A variety of other ranking experiences across NCAA Sports and beyond
While many of these goals remain far off to achieve, we've initiated our mission and created a viable product at Hierank.com, where you can find week-to-week rankings and analysis for all 256 Division I teams already, for the three seasons since Fall of 2017.

Please help us to bring you Hierank's full potential by becoming a Patron today!
...

REQUEST

I've got something truly great for you to enjoy. I've taken it as far as I can on my own. Please help me make it better.

We are here to keep creating, bigger and better than before. But we need your help.

Since we believe most of you are more inclined to help us who have helped ourselves, here's a list of items we've brought to our own party, to-date:
  • power-ranking algorithm in Google Sheets that not only works, but ROCKS
  • Active licencing of Hierank, LLC by the State of Michigan
  • Three live seasons of successful testing (2017-18, 2018-19, 2019-20) plus a season used in hindsight, for development (2016-17)
  • Ownership of the Hierank.com domain, active hosting, and a robust Content Management System
  • Functioning ranking pages going back three years, as well as active pages for every single Division I conference and team
  • Unique content angles on various NCAA accolades, such as our ongoing Super Squad Series, which awards the upperclassmen and staff at programs who have performed the best in each conference, for the last three years overall
  • A distinct brand and communication-style that is both commanding and casual
  • Over 1,200 hours of development, problem-solving, input, meeting, and content-writing
  • A clear vision for how we'd like to ramp up
And here's where proper funding can take The Season's Final Score:
  • $500
    This keeps the lights on for one year (domain, hosting, subscriptions). 
    Reaching $500 will not alter the course of our business.
  • $1000
    This is the minimum wage-value of the minimal 100-150 unpaid hours it takes to keep Hierank active each season.
    Reaching $1,000 will allow us to take on 1-2 freelance writer(s) to publish weekly during the season, with better focus on their beat(s) than we have.
  • $2500
    This recoups every single dollar paid to develop and operate the Hierank project, through the 2019-20 season.
    Reaching $2,500 will also spur us to upgrade to premium versions of many of our back-end web performance and content tools. We would invest most of this into performance and a modest marketing budget to promote our free-lancers' unique content.
  • $5000
    This translates to between 200 hours of low-level and 25 hours of the highest-level development work and consulting.
    Reaching $5,000 will allow us to retain a contracted webmaster for 5+ hours of high-level trouble-shooting, development, optimization, and consulting each month. It will also allow us to begin exploring estimates from firms who can translate our ranking algorithm from Google Sheets into SQL or another strong database language, with scores fed by an API or easy custom entry app.
  • $10000
    When we reach $10,000 raised, we promise the development of Hierank 2.0. We will put out an RFQ to firms, including our current build plus the aspirational wish-list of features from our MISSION section. We'll consider bids, then we'll bring you a higher-functioning version of Hierank.com that operates like a professional data-driven media site on every level. It would include the most important aspirational items that our budget affords.
That's enough to outline for now. But rest assured, we plan to take this higher with your $1, $2, or $5 monthly!

These production milestones account for not only pledges from you, our Patrons, but also revenue from our Underwriters and Media Partners.

If you'd like to promote your business or organization alongside helping to develop The Season's Final Score, please email [email protected] to inquire separately about our commercial partnership opportunities.

For savvy marketers: we have affiliate programs, sponsorships, and underwriter programs available.
...

ABOUT ME

I say "we" a lot here, and I have a team of friends and associates who've helped me tremendously here in many ways. They cannot go without group mention and I cannot thank them enough. But realizing this dream is going to be on me.

So who are you helping?

My name is Matt. I'm a guy from southeast Michigan. I'm left-handed. I like to play rec sports and drink with my friends, sometimes simultaneously. I have a wonderful girlfriend who's not so into this thing, but very supportive. I love my family and my college town. I run sometimes for fun. I also still can't wait to read G.R.R.M.'s "The Winds of Winter", and have been known to pick up a new open-world RPG (or just replay FFX/KH) every few years too.

I like numbers, scores, stats, and models. I love Michigan football and might hate Notre Dame more than I hate Ohio State. I went to Michigan for three years pursuing Civil Engineering, but dropped out from lack of interest and motivation at the time, and have spent the last ten years working full-time in media, sales, and business development.

My background in math and media, my love for Michigan football, my obsession with creating indices and scoring systems, and my unhappiness in a job back at the time, all made Hierank a thought that I just couldn't shake, from the moment it arose while on a run, during a crazy 2016-17 Big Ten season.

On January 1, 2017, I finally sat down and started entering Michigan and their opponents' scores into a table, setting up the same fundamental factors (Dominance, Comparative, Hierarchical) that Hierank uses to rank today. 1,200 hours, 280 tables, three seasons, and dozens of collaborations later, I'm immensely proud of what's been created.

Thank you in advance for your Patronage and all of your support! I will update you regularly while we work to realize this vision.

Matt
Goals
$4.60 of $40 per month
$500 Total
This keeps the lights on for one year (domain, hosting, subscriptions).
Reaching $500 will not alter the course of our business.
1 of 5
By becoming a patron, you'll instantly unlock access to 3 exclusive posts
3
Images
1
Writing
By becoming a patron, you'll instantly unlock access to 3 exclusive posts
3
Images
1
Writing

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